Opinion

Corona Virus pandemic
 Opinion

Opinion: COVID-19: Despite Nigeria’s Weak Healthcare Sector, Pvp-I May Help Prevent Disease Spread. | By: Oyindamola Adejumo-Ayibiowu

No doubt the emergence of COVID-19 is a global problem that will have a global effect. African countries may, however, end up being disproportionately affected by the deadly virus given that most of these countries entered the pandemic while still battling poor health infrastructures, poverty, corruption, and other challenges. Moreover, the unfair global trade system has perpetually put poor African countries in a cycle of dependence that makes them too weak to combat a pandemic without donor assistance. Unfortunately, many donor countries are also badly hit by COVID-19. Arguably, in the face of uncertain foreign assistance, Africa will need to stand up to the challenge containing the spread of the coronavirus. This is a time to look inward to devise local strategies based on Africa’s everyday reality rather than blindly copying others.

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and it has recorded 493 confirmed cases and 17 deaths within 7 weeks the country confirmed its first case. The number of infection appears small, but considering the fact that testing in Nigeria has been few and selective, it is possible that the low figure is unreal, putting Nigeria at a high risk of a major outbreak of the disease. I analyze Nigeria’s vulnerability from an Afrocentric perspective but make propositions that are based on scientific findings. I argue that the medical use of Povidone-Iodine by every high-risk citizen can salvage the country from experiencing an outbreak of the coronavirus.

Rising To the Challenge

To contain the spread of the coronavirus, Nigeria followed the conventional approach by prohibiting large gatherings, banning flights, and the lockdown of major cities. But there are challenges. Nigeria is an oil-dependent economy and the sharp fall in international oil prices, following the pandemic leaves the government with little resources to fight COVID-19. Even though Nigeria should be testing around 5000 to 10000 per day, the country has only expanded its testing capacity to 1,500 per day and this capacity has not been fully utilized. As of March 2020, Nigeria has less than 100 ventilator units and about 350 intensive care units (ICU), 95% of which are currently in use by patients suffering from other health conditions. In other words, Nigeria has less than one ICU bed per one million people. In light of the current situation, Nigeria may not be able to avoid a large number of deaths if the country is hit hard by COVID-19.

The implication and impacts of the lockdown also raise some concerns. In Nigerian cities, the larger percentage of the population live packed together in slums with limited access to clean water and sanitation. In such crowded neighborhoods, ‘stay at home’ mainly creates a form of social gathering where social distancing is impracticable and where diseases can easily spread. The lockdown also means untold hardship to many Nigerians who survive mainly on daily income earned through street businesses. It is not surprising that many people disobeyed the stay- at- home in order to find work or water. Doubtless, for the poor, the fear of hunger is far more than the fear of the coronavirus. Another counterproductive outcome of lockdown is the surge in crime. Enforcing the lockdown has been challenging, sometimes leading to violence, as well as harming and killings of citizens by operatives. It is worth mentioning that the government invested in some food stimulus package for vulnerable families, but this is grossly inadequate and the distribution chaotic. Nigerian experience shows that African countries with crowded slums and large informal sector cannot follow the playbook of total lockdowns like countries in Europe and Asia. Most importantly, it shows African countries must quickly device containing measures appropriate for crowded environments and with minimal impact on the livelihood of the poor.

Looking Inward

No doubt, Nigeria would require extensive financial and technical support from the global community to contain the spread of COVID-19. But since these donor countries are the same ones who have been hard hit by the pandemic, the Nigerian healthcare sector must rise up to this challenge. However, this sector is poorly developed due to several factors. With just 4% of Nigerian budget allocated to healthcare, Nigeria spends less on health than nearly every country in the world and the country also has one of the poorest health outcome indicators.  Nearly 20% of all global maternal deaths happen in Nigeria in 2015 while over 300,000 malaria deaths are recorded annually. The negative impact of western imperialism and globalization on Nigeria’s health sector cannot be underestimated. In 1986, the World Bank recommended that the local production of drugs in developing countries like Nigeria is not realistic which made Nigeria deemphasize local pharmaceutical production. Of course, such selfish recommendations discourage health innovations and make Africa’s healthcare sector perpetually import-dependent.

Nigeria particularly had since become a dumping ground for imported medicines which poses a serious threat to Nigeria’s health security during this pandemic. Access to imported medicines has now been difficult due to current travel bans around the world, while some critical medical supplies are now very scarce due to surge in demand. Unfortunately, any shortage of medical supplies may increase the influx of fake drugs in Nigeria. Currently, falsified chloroquine phosphate 250mg tablets manufactured in China have been found on circulation in Nigeria after it was announced that Chloroquine can be used for the treatment of COVID-19.

The opportunity

Despite the challenges, the COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity for reflection, creativity and innovation in healthcare, especially the pharmaceutical industry. Arguably, Nigeria urgently needs low-cost interventions that promise citizens the prevention of contracting COVID-19 even after the lockdown has been removed. It is for this reason I propose the medical use of Povidone-Iodine (PVP-I) solutions for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 in Nigeria. There are hundreds of old and recent scientific studies confirming the efficacy of PVP-I against infectious diseases and viruses. Such findings are particularly useful for a poor country like Nigeria, which has a limited budget for research and development.

Povidone-Iodine (PVP-I) Against Coronavirus

Povidone-iodine (PVP-I) is an antiseptic used for treatment and prevention of infection in cuts, burns, and wounds as well as in surgical operating theatres. PVP-I formulations are usually at concentrations of 7.5–10.0% in solution, oral gargle, nasal and throat sprays, surgical scrub, ointment, and swabs. The efficacy of PVP-I as an antiviral agent is particularly important for the prevention of COVID-19 for clear reasons. Coronavirus disease is a respiratory virus that spreads when mucus or droplets containing the virus get into the body through eyes, nose, or throat. This spread often occurs through the hand and that is why handwashing with soap and the use of alcohol-based sanitizers are recommended. However, scientific evidence (Eggers et al 2015) shows that PVP-I hand wash and hand rub products are more effective in terms of viral reduction than alcoholic and non-alcoholic sanitizers, as well as antimicrobial soaps.

High frequency of mouth and nose touching has implications for transmission of infection. A study on face-touching behavior shows that on average, each observed student touched their face (including their mouth, nose, and eyes) 23 times per hour. Moreover, evidence shows that COVID-19 also called SARS-CoV-2 can be inhaled through the nose into the throat. Unfortunately, after coronavirus has gotten into the eyes, the nose or mouth of any individual, hand washing, or the use of sanitizer may be unhelpful. Medical experts suggest that recognizing the cells hosting viral entry and permitting viral replication is important to improve diagnoses and treatment of the novel coronavirus. Several studies (such as To et al, 2020 and Xu et al, 2020) aim at understanding viral load, (that is, the number of virus particles being carried by an infected person) found a high viral load in saliva at the early stage of COVID-19. Recently, Lescure et al (2020 preprint) also confirm that at an early stage of SARS-COV-2 infection, high viral loads were found in the upper respiratory tract samples. Sungnak et al (2020) report that higher viral loads can be observed in nasal swabs compared to those obtained from the throat.

These reports indicate that there is a high risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus during the very first days of symptoms. Anfinrud et al (2020, preprint) suggest that tiny droplets of saliva released while speaking can spread COVID-19. Sungnak et al (2020, preprint) particularly suggest that the nasal epithelium is an important portal for initial infection, and may serve as a key reservoir for viral spread across the respiratory mucosa and an important locus mediating viral transmission. Arguably, the early application of a potent antiviral agent to the mouth, nose and upper respiratory tract may be able to prevent the transmission of the disease. PVP–I solutions especially oral gargle, nasal and throat sprays may be useful for this purpose. Given the proven in vitro efficacy of PVP-I, early use of PVP-I based nasal spray and gargle mouth wash may significantly reduce viral load at the nose, mouth, and in the upper respiratory tract of an infected person thereby reducing the risk of transmission.  This proposition is supported by Eggers et al (2015) which tested the in vitro efficacy of 4% PVP-I; skin cleanser, 7.5% PVP-I surgical scrub, and 1% PVP-I gargle/mouthwash against coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara (MVA). Their results show that each PVP-I-based product substantially reduced by ≥99.99% virus particles in contaminated skin, in the oral cavity and the oropharynx within 15 seconds of application.

Experts also opined that with respiratory viruses like coronaviruses, the outcome of infection can sometimes be determined by how much virus actually got into the body and started the infection off, so that getting infected with fewer virus particles will likely cause less severe illness. Higher initial viral load are however associated with death (Chu et al, 2004). Given the efficacy of PVP-I to reduce viral load, the use of PVP-I products may likely reduce the severity of disease thereby reducing mortality. Early detection of Covid-19 infection and treatment with an antiviral agent may also hold some benefits because despite high viral loads found in the mouth and upper respiratory tract at the onset of disease, in many cases, at that time, the virus has not marched down to attack the lungs and other vital organs. For example, Xu et al (2020) report a high expression level of SARS-CoV RNA in saliva specimens of observed patients, some of whom had not yet lung lesion, suggesting the value of early diagnosis of saliva, similarly to SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19. They also reported an animal study on early events of SARS-CoV infection which showed that SARS-CoV was detected in oral swabs before blood test turned positive on the second day after viral challenge through the nasal cavity.

Recommendation for poor countries

Foremost, this study offers many opportunities for further studies on the applicability of PVP-I against COVID-19. Recently Kirk-Bayley et al (2020, draft) have recommended for the United Kingdom, the immediate and nation-wide use of PVP-I in healthcare workers and their patients because of the observed high risk of transmission of COVID-19 in UK hospitals. Nigeria is currently at a high risk of experiencing an explosion of COVID-19 beyond the capacity of its weak healthcare system. To avoid this looming disaster and in the absence of a vaccine, I believe the regular use of PVP-I nasal spray, mouth wash, and skin cleanser should be encouraged among the populace in addition to social distance practice. This will surely reduce cross infection and severity of COVID-19 cases. Moreover, PVP-I has an excellent safety and tolerability profile and it is also available over the counter. Unlike other antiseptics, significant resistance or cross-resistance has not been observed for PVP-I.

However, Nigeria’s health authorities should quickly facilitate necessary research and clinical trials to aid the implementation of PVP-I as a measure to contain the spread COVID-19 in Nigeria. There are very few commercially available iodine-based nasal sprays and gargle/ mouth wash in the country. The facilitation of their local production and wide distribution should be a major direction of health policy. Local production of the products will also create large scale employment thereby resuscitating a seemingly comatose pharmaceutical sector.

Note: The opinions expressed in this article are of the authors and not of her current employer.

Dr. Oyindamola Adejumo-Ayibiowu has 18 years’ experience in development research and economic management. She is a graduate of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), ile-ife, Master’s degree in Poverty Reduction and Development Management (International), University of Birmingham, UK, and Ph.D. Development studies, University of South Africa, Pretoria. Her professional experiences include the Central Bank of Nigeria, UNDP, EU, World Bank, AGRA, and IFAD. She currently works with the Federal Inland Revenue Service.

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 Opinion

Opinion: The Way Forward: How Africa Can Make a Comeback from the Oil & Gas Downturn

Stunning drops in crude oil prices—the result of COVID-19-related declines in demand and an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia—have been taking their toll around the globe this spring. For Africa’s oil-producing countries, where crude oil exports make up a large portion of their revenue, the situation is especially dire.

In Nigeria, for example, Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed recently warned of an imminent recession and requested billions of dollars in international emergency funding. As of the second week of April, national oil production in Angola was expected to fall from 1.8 million to 1.36 million barrels per day as the government prepared to freeze 30% of its goods and services budget. And Ghana, according to the Africa Centre for Energy Policy, stands to see a 53% shortfall this year in projected revenue from crude oil sales. There are similar difficulties across the continent.

There has been a ray of hope: a landmark production-cut agreement among OPEC, OPEC+ and G20 stakeholders on April 12 put an end to the oil price war. Shortly after that historical agreement, the African Petroleum Producers Organization (APPO) committed to significant crude production cuts of its own, effective May 1. While demand remains a concern, the production cuts will help lower oil inventories and should bring some stability to the oil market.
I am not saying we can expect smooth sailing from this point on. There’s no denying that the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to test African countries on multiple fronts, from the health and safety dangers it poses to our people to the economic devastation and low demand for crude. The situation is painful, but it’s not permanent. And when this chapter is over, African countries will recover.

Also Read: Opinion: After COVID-19, what will Africa look like in 2030 and 2063? | By: Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka

This is the time to lay the framework for that recovery. When demand for crude oil increases again, and it will, Africa will need exploration and production activities to resume. That means oil and gas ministries should be working now on regulations that foster a more enabling environment for investors and businesses. We should be fine-tuning our local content policies and exploring technologies that can contribute to a leaner, more profitable petroleum sector. Last October, I released a book that explains how we can accomplish these things, along with other measures that will help Africa better capitalize on its oil and gas resources. The ideas and examples it provides remain on point. We can still do this.

Exploring Solutions
With demand for oil at a historic low, it may seem odd to talk about E&P activity. But, as I have said, the situation we find ourselves in now is temporary. After we get through the current crisis, production will play a critical role in our economic recovery. We need indigenous companies involved so employees, business partners, and suppliers can benefit from these activities. We also need foreign companies that are willing to share knowledge and technology—and to create economic opportunities in the communities where they operate. That’s why it’s vital that government leaders take steps now to remove obstacles to launching production, from red tape and lengthy delays to excessive taxes. Governments also need to support smaller independent companies by breaking exploration maps into smaller sections. And we need better fiscal terms for companies like breaks on import duties.

This isn’t my first time to call for these things, I cover them in-depth in my book, Billions at Play: The Future of African Energy and Doing Deals. But in the COVID-19 era, they’ve become more important than ever.

Local Content: Striking a Balance
African countries need to develop fair, balanced local content policies that create economic and educational opportunities for Africans without overly burdening foreign investors and discouraging them from operating here. A shining example of this kind of balance can be found in Equatorial Guinea, which I wrote about in Billions at Play. “The government enacted requirements for international companies to hire Equatoguineans, contribute to training programs, and work with local subcontractors. They were careful to balance the need to boost local industry, however, with the limitations of the current local industry. They understood how unrealistic it was to require 100 percent local content until more training, education, and local capacity in that field is created.”

I’d like to see more African countries consider the example of Equatorial Guinea, along with successful local content policies in Nigeria and Angola, also covered in my book. Effective local content is key to helping everyday Africans realize the benefits of Africa’s oil and gas resources. This is a good time for leaders to look at what works and what doesn’t in their own policies and make the necessary adjustments.

It’s Time for More Tech
COVID-19 has forced companies around the globe to rely on technology to function, whether they’re using it to hold virtual meetings or monitor vital assets. I’m confident that technological solutions will play an important role in the comeback of Africa’s oil & gas industry, too. In my book, I described technology’s potential to help indigenous African oil & gas companies operate more efficiently and boost profits, which in turn, benefits their communities and promotes economic growth. “Innovations such as the development of new ways to drill wells and handle equipment, the design of new seismic data collection programs, the management of petroleum data systems, and the monitoring and protection of internet-connected equipment have the potential to redefine how business is done in this sector.”

Now, with economic difficulties and low oil prices, benefits like these could be more valuable than ever. I encourage African oil and gas companies to work with one another, and with local tech firms, to augment their technological capacities. African companies also should be pursuing partnerships with foreign investors that are open to technical knowledge and skills transfers. Billions at Play describes the successes that Angola-based Friburge Oil & Gas has had partnering with international technology providers to drive efficiency and environmentally friendly production methods. We need to see more companies doing the same. Governments can support these efforts through local content policies that call for knowledge sharing, along with the creation of educational initiatives and public-private partnerships.

Also  Read: Mitigating COVID-19’s impact on Africa’s food systems ~ By Atsuko Toda and Martin Fregene

Long before the unthinkable happened, and COVID-19 changed our world, I made a case for strategically harnessing Africa’s oil and gas resources to create stability and economic growth. Now, because of the pandemic, we find ourselves in a difficult place with extremely low oil prices and faltering economies. As a result, some of those strategies I’ve recommended may have to go on hold. Nevertheless, the steps I’ve put forth to help us reap the full benefits of our petroleum resources will still have merit when we emerge from this trial. If we start preparing now to set them in place, they’re even more likely to be successful.

NJ Ayuk is Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, CEO of pan-African corporate law conglomerate Centurion Law Group, and the author of several books about the oil and gas industry in Africa, including Billions at Play: The Future of African Energy and Doing Deals.

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Corona Virus pandemic
 Opinion

Opinion: Turning COVID-19 tragedy into opportunity for New Nigeria | By: Godwin Emefiele

As many people are now aware, the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in China has rapidly permeated and profoundly changed the world. While this crisis is first and foremost a public health issue, which has claimed the lives of over 123,600 people worldwide, and counting, the economic damages are unprecedented on several fronts: crude oil prices have declined dramatically to as low as US$17 per barrel by the end of March, even before applying the discounts many oil exporters are offering; stock valuations for the NSE-ASI, Nikkei, Dow Jones and FTSE-100 have declined by an average of 23.8 percent between January and March 2020; global airlines have lost about US$252 billion in revenues and across the broad range of industries from hospitality to services, the pain is growing. These outcomes have expectedly thrown the global economy into a recession, the depth and duration of which is currently difficult to fathom. In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economy would decline by 3 percent this year.

Around the world, countries have moved away from multilateralism and responded by fighting for themselves with several measures to protect their own people and economies, regardless of the spillover effects on the rest of the world. According to the World Customs Organization, a total of 32 countries and territories, adopted stringent and immediate export restrictions (https://bit.ly/34EmqxW) on critical medical supplies and drugs that were specifically meant to respond to COVID-19. As of 10 April 2020, an updated count of total export restrictions by the Global Trade Alert Team (https://bit.ly/3bd9AJh) at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland suggest a total of 102 restrictions by 75 countries (https://bit.ly/2V7sHih).

On 4 March 2020, Germany announced an export ban that applied to all sorts of medical protection gear including breathing masks, medical gloves and protective suits. Around the same time, President Macron announced that France will requisition all face masks produced in the country, a de facto export ban. Between 8 February 2020 and 6 April 2020, India released eight (8) different export notifications banning several drugs and medical supplies including hydroxychloroquine, ventilators, personal protections masks, oxygen therapy apparatus, and breathing devices. On 3 April 2020, the Trump Administration invoked the war-era US Defense Production Act to stop major US mask manufacturer, 3M, from export of respirator masks, N95, to Canada and Latin America.

Also Read: Opinion: The pandemic is no time for fiscal distancing | By: Akinwumi Adesina

Fears of a long global recession have also led to worries about unprecedented global food insecurity, with concerns that agricultural production may be dislocated by containment measures that constrain workers from planting, managing and harvesting critical crops. Rather than seek cooperative and global solutions, several countries have resorted to export restrictions of critical agricultural produce.

According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), about 37 countries have enacted various forms of food export restrictions in response to COVID-19, even in countries where average production exceeds domestic consumption.

For example, Viet Nam, the world’s third largest exporter of rice, suspended granting rice export certificates until the country “reviews domestic inventories”. Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, announced a ten-day ban on the export of buckwheat and rice due to concerns over panic buying in local supermarkets.

What if these restrictions become the new normal? What if the COVID-19 pandemic continues in a second wave or another pandemic occurs in which all borders are shut, and food imports are significantly restricted? What if we cannot seek medical care outside Nigeria and must rely on local hospitals and medical professionals? For how long shall we continue to rely on the world for anything and everything at every time?

Although these developments are troubling, they present a clear opportunity to re-echo a persistent message the CBN has been sending for a long time, and at this time even more urgently so: we must look inwards as a nation and guarantee food security, high quality and affordable healthcare, and cutting-edge education for our people.

For a country of over 200 million people, and projected to be about 450 million in a few decades, we can no longer ignore repeated warnings about the dangers that lie ahead if we do not begin to depend largely on what we produce locally, because the security and well-being of our nation is contingent on building a well-diversified and inclusive productive economy.

When I became Governor of the Central Bank in June 2014, imports of rice, fish, wheat and sugar alone consumed about N1.3 trillion worth of foreign exchange from the Bank. The immediate question that came to my mind was: can we not grow these ourselves? After all, only a few decades ago, Nigeria was one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of palm oil, cocoa and groundnuts.
Today, we import nearly 600,000 metric tonnes of palm oil, whilst Indonesia and Malaysia, two countries that were far behind us in this crop, now combine to export over 90 percent of global demand. In 2017, Indonesia earned US$12.6 billion from its oil and gas sector but US$18.4 billion in from palm oil. I believe that this pandemic and the immediate response of many of our trading partners suggest it is now more critical than ever that we take back control, not just control over our economy, but also of our destiny and our future.

In line with the vision of President Muhammadu Buhari, the CBN has indeed created several lending programmes and provided hundreds of billions to smallholder farmers and industrial processors in several key agricultural produce.

These policies are aimed at positioning Nigeria to become a self-sufficient food producer, creating millions of jobs, supplying key markets across the country and dampening the effects of exchange rate movements on local prices.

This philosophy has been a consistent theme of the CBN’s policies over the last couple of years. At the 2016 Annual Bankers’ Dinner, I challenged the bankers that we needed to take decisive actions to fundamentally transform the structure of our economy. Throughout that speech, I talked about the damaging effects of Nigeria’s unsustainable propensity to import, and opined that it was high time we looked inwards and stopped using hard-earned foreign exchange (FX) to import items that we could produce locally.

This determination, therefore, formed the bedrock of the Bank’s policy, which restricts access to FX for importers of many items. These sentiments were re-echoed at the 2017 edition of the same Bankers’ Dinner, with specific examples of several companies that have benefited significantly from this policy of self-sufficiency. With President Buhari’s full support, we have continued to refine this policy to ensure that the best interest of Nigeria is served.

Many times, the Bank has been accused of promoting protectionist policies. My answer has always been that leaders are first and foremost accountable to their own citizens. And if the vagaries of international trade threaten their wellbeing, leaders have to react by compelling some change in patterns of trade to the greater good of their citizens.

That is why in response to COVID-19, we are strengthening the Nigerian economy by providing a combined stimulus package of about N3.5 trillion in targeted measures to households, businesses, manufacturers and healthcare providers. These measures are deliberately designed to both support the Federal Government’s immediate fight against COVID-19, but also to build a more resilient, more self-reliant Nigerian economy.

We do not know what the world will look like after this pandemic. Countries may continue to look inwards and globalization as we know it today may be dead for a generation.

Therefore, as a nation, we cannot afford to continue relying on the world for our food, education and healthcare. The time has come to fully transform Nigeria into a modern, sophisticated and inclusive economy that is self-sufficient, rewards the hardworking, but protects the poor and vulnerable, and can compete internationally across a range of strategic sectors.

In order to achieve this goal, we must begin immediately to support the Federal Government to:

1) Build a base of high quality infrastructure, including reliable power, that can engender industrial activity;

2) Support both smallholder and large scale agriculture production in select staple and cash crops;

3) Create an ecosystem of factories, storages, and logistics companies that move raw materials to factories and finished goods to markets;

4) Use our fiscal priorities to create a robust educational system that enables critical thinking and creativity, which would better prepare our children for the world of tomorrow;

5) Develop a healthcare system that is trusted to keep all Nigerians healthy, irrespective of social class;

6) Facilitate access to cheap and long-term credit for SMEs and large corporates;

7) Develop and strengthen pro-poor policies that bring financial services and security to the poor and the vulnerable; and

8) Expedite the development of venture capitalists for nurturing new ideas and engendering Nigerian businesses to compete globally.

India is in a position to ban exports because it is producing critical drugs and medical supplies that the rest of the world needs. It also has companies that are global champions, and even making mergers and acquisitions in advanced nations. Why should this be out of our reach? We have the companies too; we have the manpower and some of the best brains in the world from the Americas to Europe and from Asia to Africa are Nigerians; driving global innovations in all fields. Nigerians are successful everywhere, and are already one of the most sought after immigrant groups in the United States.
But now is the time to seize this opportunity and create an environment that empowers our people to thrive within our own shores.

To this end, the Central Bank has developed a Policy Response Timeline to guide our crises management and the orderly reboot of the Nigerian economy.

Immediate-Term Policies (0-3 Months):

In light of the fact that this crisis is an exogenous one thrust upon us without much warning, this phase reflects the government’s efforts at containment and mitigation. Although global cases are heading towards two million with over 123, 600 deaths as of 14 April 2020, we now have 343 cases, of which 10 deaths and 91 recoveries have been recorded.

With President Buhari’s continuing strong leadership, Nigeria can now test 1500 persons per day in twelve (12) Molecular Test Laboratories. We believe that this strong leadership in travel restrictions, lockdown, social distancing, and other measures have been greatly effective to curbing the spread of the disease. More so, the Presidential Task Force and Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) have helped the country stay ahead of the curve with increased testing capacity, provision of better-equipped isolation centres, and effective contact tracing. Within this milieu, the CBN has responded in several ways, first by supporting hospitals and pharmaceutical industry with low interest loans to immediately deal with the public health crises; then by working with the private sector Coalition Against COVID (CACOVID) to support the Presidential Task Force across its response, while mobilizing palliatives for the poor and vulnerable.

Under this Immediate-Term Response, we have activated the following:

1) Ensuring financial system stability by granting regulatory forbearance to banks to restructure terms of facilities in affected sectors;

2) Triggering banks and other financial institutions to roll-out business continuity processes to ensure that banking services are delivered in a safe social-distance regime for all customers and bankers;

3) Granting additional moratorium of 1 year on CBN intervention facilities;

4) Reducing interest rates on intervention facilities from 9 percent to 5 percent;

5) Creation of N50 billion targeted credit facility for affected households & SMEs;

6) Strengthening the Loan-Deposit Ratio (LDR) policy, which is encouraging significant extra lending from banks;

7) Improving FX supply to the CBN by directing all oil companies (international and domestic) and all related companies (oil service) to sell FX to CBN and no longer to the NNPC;

8) Providing additional N100b intervention in healthcare loans to pharmaceutical companies, healthcare practitioners intending to expand/build capacity;

9) providing N1 trillion in loans to boost local manufacturing and production across critical sectors; and

10) Engendering financial inclusion by ensuring the poor and vulnerable are able, by all means necessary, through banks, microfinance, community and non-bank financial institutions, to access financial services to meet their basic needs.

Short-Term Policy Priorities (0 – 12 months):

As soon as President Muhammadu Buhari and the Health authorities determine our Coronavirus Transmission Curve is flattening and many of the ongoing restrictions are eased, this will be the phase for repositioning the Nigerian economic space. As part of the lessons from the current pandemic, we must ensure that that our value-added sector, the manufacturing industry is strengthened. Accordingly, the CBN will pursue the following policies in this phase:

1) Reinvigorate our financial support for the manufacturing sector by expanding the intervention all through its value-chain. In most cases, we will ensure that primary products sourced locally provide essential raw material for the manufacturing sector except where they are only available overseas;

2) With the support of the Federal Government, the CBN will embark on a project to get banks and private equity firms to finance homegrown and sustainable healthcare services that will help to reverse medical tourism out of Nigeria. By offering long-term financing for the entire healthcare value-chain (including medicine, pharmaceuticals, and critical care), banks will work with healthcare providers to consolidate on the current efforts to rebuild our medical facilities in order to ensure Nigeria has world class affordable hospitals for the people of Nigeria and those wishing to visit Nigeria for treatment;

3) The CBN will promote the establishment of InfraCo PLC, a world class infrastructure development vehicle, wholly focused on Nigeria, with combined debt and equity take-off capital of N15 trillion, and managed by an independent infrastructure fund manager. This fund will be utilized to support the Federal Government in building the transport infrastructure required to move agriculture products to processors, raw materials to factories, and finished goods to markets, as envisaged at the CBN Going for Growth Roundtable in March 2020; and 4) Continue to prioritize the provision of FX for the importation of machinery and critical raw materials needed to drive a self-sufficient Nigerian economy.

Medium-Term Policy Priorities (0 -3 Years):

Once the world returns to some new normal having tamed COVID-19 by a combination of vaccines and social distancing, and the Nigerian economy reopens fully for business, we will act quickly to enable faster recovery of the economy by targeted measures towards particular sectors that are able to support mass employment and wealth creation in the country. We will do so by focusing on four main areas, namely, light manufacturing, affordable housing, renewable energy, and cutting-edge research.

In manufacturing, for example, it is pertinent to note that Nigeria’s gross fixed capital formation is currently estimated at N24.55 trillion made up residential and non-residential properties, machinery and equipment, transport equipment, land improvement, research and development, and breeding stocks. Of this estimated value, machinery and equipment, which are the main inputs into economic production, are currently valued at only N2.61 trillion. In order to pursue a substantial economic renewal, including replacement of at least 25 percent of the existing machinery and equipment for enhanced local production, we estimate at least N662 billion worth of investments to acquire hi-tech machinery and equipment.

Therefore, the CBN will consider an initial intervention of N500 billion over the medium term, specifically targeted at manufacturing firms to procure state-of-the-art machinery and equipment and automated manufacturing models that would fast-track local production and economic rejuvenation, as well as support increased patronage of locally processed products such as cement, steel, iron rods, and doors, amongst several other products. The recent private sector investments in cement production using enhanced technology and automated manufacturing models is a good example of the kind of economic renewal we will be pursuing in this phase. We will develop a thorough screening process and stringent criteria for equipment types that would qualify for funding under this phase.

In order to boost job creation, household incomes and economic growth, we will be focusing our attention to bridging the housing deficit in the country, by facilitating government intervention in three critical areas: housing development, mortgage finance, and institutional capacity.

We will pursue the creation of a fund that will target housing construction for developers that provide evidence of profiled off-takers with financial capacity to repay. The current identification framework in the banking sector using the bank verification number (BVN) will be used to verify the information provided by the off-takers before the developer can access the funds. We will also be considering ways to assist the Mortgage Finance Sub-sector as well as build capacity at the State levels for their land administration agencies to process and issue land titles promptly, implement investment friendly foreclosure laws and reduce the cost of land documentation, as this has remained a major inhibiting factor in the provision of affordable housing in the country.

Over the next 3 years, we will also support the financing of environmentally friendly energy production, as this has a tangential long-term health benefits. We will look at efforts to drive innovation and research in every sector, through our universities, research institutions, creative industry initiatives, and all other media of novelty and inventions.

In conclusion, I believe we must now envision and work toward a Nigeria with the cutting edge medical facilities to provide world class care to the sick and vulnerable; enable our universities and research institutions to provide the requisite education and training that is required to keep these ecosystems functioning sustainably and efficiently; and millions of Nigerians employed in meaningful and well-paying jobs. This is the Nigeria that we must aspire to build.

COVID-19 may have plunged us into a crisis of unprecedented proportions. But, as Winston Churchill once admonished, we must never let a crisis go to waste.

SOURCE: The Central Bank Of Nigeria

-Godwin I. Emefiele, CON is Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria

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 Opinion

Mitigating COVID-19’s impact on Africa’s food systems ~ By Atsuko Toda and Martin Fregene

The global spread of COVID-19 and the rising number of coronavirus cases in Africa are fueling anxiety about negative economic growth, failing healthcare and collapsing food systems

We are facing great uncertainty on the African continent. The global spread of COVID-19 and the rising number of coronavirus cases in Africa are fueling anxiety about negative economic growth, failing healthcare and collapsing food systems. We are already grappling with a locust outbreak in the Horn of Africa, drought and flood extremes due to climate change and increasing food importation costs  of more than $47 billion in 2019. The convergence of all these sets the stage for an imminent food crisis –  unless measures are taken to mitigate the impact of the pandemic.

Consider also that the U.S. dollar has surged against emerging market currencies, reducing the purchasing power of countries reliant on commodity imports and sparking higher consumer prices. Inflationary pressure on food staples can breed social tension and even unrest.

Anti-pandemic measures like nationwide lockdowns and border closures compound food shortages – especially of nutritious but perishable foods like fruit and vegetables. Restrictions on movement and quarantine measures impede farmers’ access to markets. In Nigeria, rice prices are 30% higher than in January, thanks to panic buying, transport restrictions and rising global prices.

Also, foreign direct investment and aid into Africa is expected to fall, or be delayed as international investors and development partners redirect capital to their local economies and into stimulus packages to combat COVID-19.

But Africa is coming up with its own solutions for these challenges, with the African Development Bank being prominently involved. To address the threat of food security, several short-term measures are being taken:

  • Creation of a “green channel” for the free flow of food and agricultural inputs.
  • Creation of strong demand for agricultural inputs of fertilizer, seeds and agro-chemicals through smart input famer subsidies.
  • Measures to prevent food price hikes by releasing food from government grain reserves and implementing anti-hoarding policy.
  • Rapid scale up of food production technologies, including high-yielding, early-maturing, drought-tolerant, disease- and pest-resistant staple crops, livestock and fish through programs like the Bank’s Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation initiative. (taat-africa.org)
  • Feeding programs for the worst affected and most vulnerable zones.

Medium to longer-term food security interventions include:

  • Provision of recovery strategy support to key supply chain players like logistics companies and anchor farmers.
  • Strengthening food supply chain resilience via efficient production, processing and value addition.
  • Enforcing food safety, improved food quality and traceability policies in the post-coronavirus period.
  • Promoting digitalization and e-commerce in markets hit by COVID-19.

Guided by lessons learned from previous health crises, including the Ebola epidemic, the Bank has responded to the pandemic by putting together a package of support for the public and private sector. The COVID-19 Response Facility will mobilize up to $10 billion to provide financial assistance to African countries fight the pandemic. The Bank has also raised a $3 billon COVID-19 bond, proceeds of which will go to address fiscal challenges, as well as emergency procurement of drugs, vaccinations, ventilators and other health-related expenditures, as well as feeding programs, agro-input subsidies and other socio-economic interventions.

To rebound from the pandemic, Africa must maintain adequate food reserves, avoid protectionist policies and promote value chains that link domestic and international markets. As the Bank takes a key role in supporting African countries to design and implement coordinated policy responses, it will work with regional partners including the African Union and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, as well as international ones such as the World Trade Organization, the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition, the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, and other international partners.

Dr. Martin Fregene is the Bank’s Director of Agriculture and Agro-industry.

Atsuko Toda is Director of Agricultural Finance and Rural Development at African Development Bank.

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 Opinion

Opinion: After COVID-19, what will Africa look like in 2030 and 2063? | By: Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka

African leaders need to look in the mirror and ask where this continent will be in 2030 and 2063

The COVID-19 pandemic, one of the world’s most significant events, has resulted in cessation of economic activities that will lead to a significant decline in GDP, an unprecedented social disruption, and the loss of millions of jobs. According to estimates by the African Development Bank, the contraction of the region’s economies will cost Sub-Saharan Africa between $35 billion and $100 billion due to an output decline and a steep fall in commodity prices, especially the crash of oil prices.

More fundamentally, the pandemic has brutally exposed the hollowness of African economies on two fronts: the fragility and weakness of Africa’s health and pharmaceutical sectors and the lack of industrial capabilities. The two are complementary.

This is because Africa is almost 100 percent dependent on imports for the supply of medicines.

According to a recent McKinsey (2019) study, China and India supply 70 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s demand for medicine, worth $14 billion. China’s and India’s markets are worth $120 billion and $33 billion respectively. Consider a hypothetic situation where both India and China are unable or unwilling to supply the African market? Africa surely faces a health hazard.

Also Read: COVID-19 pandemic bolsters case for technology-based economic resilience | By: Stefan Nalletamby

The root of Africa’s underdeveloped industrial and health sectors can be encapsulated in three ways. First, some African policy makers simply think that poor countries do not need to industrialize. This group believes the “no-industrial policy” advocates who engage in rhetoric that does not fit the facts. The histories of both Western societies, and contemporary lessons from East Asia, run contrary to that stance.

Clearly, governments have an important role to play in the nature and direction of industrialization. Progressive governments throughout history understand that the faster the rate of growth in manufacturing, the faster the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

From the Economist magazine five years ago: “BY MAKING things and selling them to foreigners, China has transformed itself—and the world economy with it. In 1990 it produced less than 3% of global manufacturing output by value; its share now is nearly a quarter. China produces about 80% of the world’s air-conditioners, 70% of its mobile phones and 60% of its shoes. Today, China is the world’s leader in manufacturing and produces almost half of the world’s steel.” The keyword is “making”.

Two, rich countries therefore became rich by manufacturing and exporting to others, including high-quality goods and services. Poor African countries remain poor because they continue to produce raw materials for rich countries. For example, 70% of global trade in agriculture is in semi-processed and processed products. Africa is largely absent in this market while the region remains an exporter of raw materials to Asia and the West.

Lastly, African countries are repeatedly told that they cannot compete based on scale economy, and as well, price and quality competitiveness because China will outcompete them. For this reason, they should jettison the idea of local production of drugs, food and the most basic things.

The question is: How did Vietnam, with a population of 95 million, emerge from a brutal 20-year war and lift more than 45 million people out of poverty between 2002 and 2018 and develop a manufacturing base that spans textiles, agriculture, furniture, plastics, paper, tourism and telecommunications? It has emerged as a manufacturing powerhouse, becoming the world’s third-largest exporter of textiles and garments (after China and Bangladesh).

Vietnam currently exports over 10 million tonnes of rice, coming third after India and China.

How is it that Bangladesh, a country far poorer than many African countries, is able to manufacture 97% of all its drugs demand, yet it is next door to India, a powerhouse of drug manufacturing?

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed Africa. African leaders need to look in the mirror and ask where this continent will be in 2030 and 2063. Africa must adopt progressive industrial policies that create inclusive, prosperous and sustainable societies.

What then should be done? A three-pronged approached is urgently needed.

First, Africa needs a strong regional coordination mechanism to consolidate small uncompetitive firms operating in small atomistic market structures. With a consumer base of 1.3 billion and $3.3 trillion market under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the continent has no choice but to bring together its fragmented markets.

Second, Africa needs to build better institutions, strengthen weak ones and introduce the ones missing. No better wake-up call is required than the present pandemic.

Third, one important institution that has been abruptly disrupted is the supply chain for medicines and food, for example. Logistics for transporting capital and consumer goods across the region need predictable structures. Building or strengthening supply chains involve fostering and providing regulations for long-term agreements and competences that leverage both private and public institutional challenges such as customs regulations.

Finally, development finance institutions (DFIs) such as the African Development Bank are mandated to, and are currently, trying to fill the gaps left by private financial institutions. There is an opportunity to Africa to rethink and reengineer its future. The Africa of tomorrow must look inwards for its solutions. – whether in feeding its own people, build industrial powerhouses led by African champions.

The African Development Bank stands ready to help target and push for deeper economic transformation. Africa needs to execute structurally transformative projects that generate positive externalities and social returns. Keep our eyes on the days after.

Professor Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, is the Senior Special Adviser on Industrialization to the President of the African Development Bank. He is a fellow of the Nigerian Academy of Engineering and Professorial Fellow, United Nations University. His recent book is “Resurgent Africa: Structural Transformation and Sustainable Development”, UK: Anthem Press, 2020.

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COVID-19 pandemic bolsters case for technology-based economic resilience | By: Stefan Nalletamby

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a devastating impact globally, the African continent, while less affected, is preparing to undergo its own severe social and economic crisis. As of April 7, over 10,000 cases have been reported across 52 countries in Africa (less than 1% of cases globally).

Yet despite the slow onset, Africa’s fragile health systems will be overwhelmed if the virus continues to spread. To avoid this scenario, governments are implementing contingency measures with striking collateral damage in the form of shops and factories closing, workers being sent home, and jobs being cut, with the effect that an economic recession is looming.

In response, the African Development Bank has raised an exceptional $3 billion, three-year bond to help alleviate the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. A portion of these funds will help finance access to health and other essential goods and services as well as the infrastructure needed to address the crisis and create favourable conditions for resilience.

The Bank believes that digital technologies can and will play a critical role in strengthening resilience by enabling fast responses to this crisis while helping alleviate its impact.

Also Read: Opinion: Africa cannot go back to ‘business as usual’ when COVID-19 pandemic is over

There are a number of specific use cases where digital technologies help create an enabling environment for human resilience during these difficult times.

A shift to a cashless economy

Physical money currently acts as a vector for the virus’ spread whereas technology makes payments possible and safe. Governments and start-ups across Africa are implementing measures to shift payment transactions toward mobile money and away from cash, as recommended by the World Health Organization. A case in point is Kenya, the pioneer of mobile money, where the payments industry has collaborated to ensure that digital payments can be made across the board, especially by the most vulnerable. For a three-month period, digital transactions below 1,000 Kenya Shillings ($10) will be free.

Ghana too has instituted measures to drive digital payments and combat the virus. The Central Bank of Ghana has directed mobile money providers to waive fees on transactions of 100 Ghana Cedis ($18) or less and has allowed for the opening of mobile money accounts using existing subscriber registrations with mobile operators. South African fintech start-ups are encouraging the use of contact-less payments through point-of-sale devices.

Online business (e-commerce)

Online business and e-commerce platforms help maintain social distancing and reduce the potential spread of COVID-19. Online delivery applications have become the ideal medium to order food, groceries and medical supplies. E-commerce platforms, whether web-or app-based, are gaining new users.

Digital health infrastructure is helping communities safely navigate the pandemic. Telemedicine platforms based on chatbots enable people to ask questions about symptoms and treatment. These platforms also allow the public to assess the probability of infection. Other innovations, such as medical tips generated via sms or WhatsApp, advise recipients on responsible behaviors. Chatbots can also direct patients to nearby hospitals and enable healthcare professionals to track the pandemic’s spread in real-time.

Also Read: Opinion: The pandemic is no time for fiscal distancing | By: Akinwumi Adesina

Digital work and learning spaces linked by internet infrastructure and virtual platforms have increasingly become a mainstay for businesses and learning institutions as they connect remote workers and students across countries, regions and globally.

The pandemic has spurred innovative approaches that are helping society respond to and minimize its impact. Even before the global pandemic however, digital technology in general and digital financial services in particular had begun accelerating economic resilience, particularly for the most vulnerable. In 2019, the Bank partnered with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Government of Luxembourg and Agence Française de Développement to set up the Africa Digital Financial Inclusion Facility (ADFI). ADFI is a blended finance vehicle that aims to scale up digital financial services in Africa to accelerate financial inclusion and ensure that digital financial systems include and empower everyone, especially women. 

Boost Africa is another initiative that is leveraging technology to spur inclusive growth. A partnership of the Bank, the European Commission and the European investment Bank, Boost Africa uses venture capital to support high growth SMEs that are tech-enabled and driven by disruptive technologies.

The Social Impact Investment Program (SIIPA), a joint initiative of the Bank and the European Commission, leverages technology to deliver social goods and services to underserved populations.

The COVID-19 pandemic is severe, and its economic effects are only just beginning to be felt in Africa. Still, innovative solutions and technology tools offer a glimmer of hope for human efforts to boost resilience and slow or halt the spread of the virus. We must seize upon the current urgency to rapidly develop and deploy digital services that are universal and inclusive, and which will help shield Africa’s most vulnerable from future economic shocks.

Stefan Nalletamby is the African Development Bank’s acting Vice-President for Private Sector,
Infrastructure and Industrialisation.

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Corona Virus pandemic
 Opinion

Opinion: Africa cannot go back to ‘business as usual’ when COVID-19 pandemic is over | By: Babatunde Omilola

Like every other pandemic that the world has experienced in the past, coronavirus will eventually come to an end. It will be defeated, and life return to normal. But it will teach us an important lesson: the need to invest in health infrastructure across the world, and particularly in Africa.

For centuries, global and national agendas have given premium to wealth creation and less attention to healthcare. Indeed, the pursuit of wealth has even come at the expense of the environment. Budgetary allocations for health have been woefully inadequate compared to other sectors. Just imagine this: if what we are experiencing today was a virus that attacked machines and not human beings, normal life would go on – handshakes, kisses and hugs would still symbolise friendship, love and comfort and not the threat of infection. From now on, we must prioritise human health collectively, not individually.

Globally, as at 6 April 2020, there have been 1,174,866 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 64,541 deaths, reported to the World Health Organization (WHO). We may not have reached the apex of this pandemic, and what we have seen so far from other countries suggests that Africa is a ticking time bomb. If advanced economies like Italy, Spain, the United States and France are struggling to contain the wrath of this pandemic, then it has a devastating potential in poor countries like Uganda, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Senegal, where lifestyle, beliefs, culture and economic conditions offer fertile grounds for disease to thrive.

One would have thought that the Ebola outbreak, which began in 2014, would have opened the eyes of key stakeholders in Africa to consider health system strengthening as a key priority. But this has not been the case. At the beginning of the Ebola epidemic, fear and panic prompted some African governments to pay attention to shoring up their health systems, yet, when the grip of the epidemic loosened, business as usual continued.

Also Read: Opinion: The pandemic is no time for fiscal distancing | By: Akinwumi Adesina

Africa cannot afford to go back to business as usual when the COVID-19 pandemic is finally halted. Such an attitude would be akin to settling down to sleep while our roof is on fire. There are too many health issues to be fixed – from an inadequate number of health care professionals to a lack of health infrastructure.

At present, Africa is home to more than 1.3 billion people and bears one-third of the global disease burden yet accounts for only 3% of the global health workforce. The average physician density in sub-Saharan Africa stands at two doctors per 10,000 people. This ranges from 0.6 in Burkina Faso to nine doctors in South Africa. Nigeria, which is the most populous nation in Africa, has physician density of three doctors to 10,000 population. Ethiopia has just one doctor per 10,000 people, even though it has the second largest population on the continent. In contrast, Italy, France and Spain, where COVID-19 is taking its heaviest toll, have physician densities of 40.9, 40.6 and 32.3 doctors per 10,000 population respectively.

There is also a huge health infrastructure gap. An assessment by WHO regarding the status of health infrastructure across the continent revealed woefully inadequate physical health infrastructure. Dispensaries and health centres are limited in supply. The shortage of these facilities makes access to primary healthcare a challenge to most rural residents. For instance, total hospital density per 100,000 population across the continent ranges from 0.06 to 0.17. The number of hospital beds, including intensive care unit (ICU) beds, are limited. A country like South Africa, even with its advanced public health systems has less than 1,000 ICU beds. In Malawi, 17 million people rely on only 25 ICU beds. Countries like Zimbabwe and Liberia have none.

Laboratory capacity in most African countries are equally bereft of modern facilities. The emergency medical systems across many countries in Africa can only deal with a fraction of those needing care. In some deprived communities in Burkina Faso, women requiring emergency care are sometimes transported on bicycles to health centres. Similar conditions can also be found in Chad, Central African Republic, northern Ghana and some rural parts of Nigeria. At the moment, the United States is battling with a limited supply of ventilators for COVID-19 patients. In Africa, very few countries can boast of having even 100 ventilators. There is an urgent need, therefore, to pay attention to health system strengthening in Africa.

Investing in quality health infrastructure makes sense from both economic and social perspectives. Indeed, there is enough evidence that shows that investments in health infrastructure create an avenue for resilient societies and drive inclusive growth. Development partners have a role to play. They can prevent the collapse of health systems in Africa by establishing special funding schemes to support the health expenditures of African countries. These must, however, be targeted and well defined. The support should aim to avoid overstretching existing health infrastructure while strengthening human resource capacity.

The starting point should be investments in digital health tools. Breakthrough innovations such as telemedicine, mHealth and drones are transforming healthcare in advanced countries, meanwhile their adoption in Africa have been rather slow. Supporting the scaling up of these technologies in Africa could help governments deal effectively with epidemics and the growing burden of chronic diseases. Supporting the construction of health posts, the purchasing of personal protective equipment and equipping medical centres with modern facilities can follow. There is no time to waste: while finding ways to battle the current pandemic may be daunting, it also presents an opportunity to focus on the strengthening of Africa’s health systems by adopting a comprehensive and integrated approach based on each country’s individual needs. Let us not go back to business as usual after this pandemic.

Babatunde Omilola is the Manager for Public Health, Security and Nutrition Division at the African Development Bank.

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Funke and hubby
 Entertainment, Opinion

Opinion: Why The Conviction Of Funke Akindele Cannot Stand In Law | By: Inibehe Effiong

The trial and conviction of actress Funke Akindele and her husband are legally flawed. The fact that they pleaded guilty does not foreclose a discussion on the case because the flaws I intend to highlight are constitutional and jurisdictional in nature. Issues of jurisdiction can be raised at any time. I have read the following: The Charge Sheet filed by the office of the Attorney General of Lagos State against Funke and her husband; the Public Health Law Cap. P16 Vol. 9 Laws of Lagos State, 2015; and the Lagos State Infectious Disease (Emergency Prevention) Regulations 2020. I submit that Funke Akindele and her husband (the defendants) were convicted for a non-existent offence. The charge sheet shows that the two defendants were arraigned on a one-count charge for gathering with more than twenty persons contrary “to the social distancing directives of Mr Governor of Lagos State.”

DEFENDANTS CHARGED FOR AN OFFENCE THAT IS UNKNOWN TO LAW:

The charge sheet against the defendants also states that the said social distancing directives contravened by the defendants were issued by the Governor in line with the regulations made by the Governor pursuant to the Public Health Law. In other words, the defendants were not charged under the Quarantine Act. They were charged under Section 58 of the Public Health Law of Lagos State. For clarity, Section 58 of the Public Health Law cited in the charge sheet provides as follows:

“For any contravention of the provisions of this Law or any regulation made under this Law for which no other penalty is provided, the offender commits an offence and is liable on conviction to a fine of One Hundred Thousand Naira (N100,000.00) or to any non-custodial sentence and if a corporate body, to a fine of Five Hundred Thousand Naira (N500,000.00).” The defendants were convicted for gathering with more than twenty persons. The material question is: is it an offence under the Public Health Law or Infectious Disease Regulations to do so?

There is no provision under the Public Health Law or Infectious Disease Regulations that makes gathering with more than twenty persons a criminal offence. The Infectious Disease Regulations purport to give the Governor the power to issue the social distancing directives. The legal defect in the directive on gathering is that it cannot be the basis for criminal liability. A subsidiary legislation like the Infectious Disease (Emergency Prevention) Regulations 2020 derives its authority and validity from a substantive law (the principal legislation). The regulations cannot extend such authority. Since the Quarantine Act and the Public Health Law of Lagos State specifically limit offences to the contravention of regulations made by the governor, it is outright illegality to charge Funke Akindele and her husband for contravening a directive of the Governor (which is outside the regulations itself). See Din V. Attorney-General of the Federation (1988) 4 NWLR (Pt.87) 147.

Also Read: Court sentences Funke Akindele and hubby to 14 days of community service.

An act or omission is only a crime if it is so prescribed in a written law. By virtue of Section 36 (12) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended), every person is guaranteed the fundamental right not to be convicted unless the offence is defined and the penalty is prescribed in a written. It states as follows: “Subject as otherwise provided by this Constitution, a person shall not be convicted of a criminal offence unless that offence is defined and the penalty therefor is prescribed in a written law and in this subsection, a written law refers to an Act of the National Assembly or a Law of a State, any subsidiary legislation or instrument under the provisions of law.” Let me reiterate that the Governor’s social distancing directive that restricts gathering in Lagos State which the defendants purportedly contravened is not an Act of the National Assembly, or a Law of the Lagos State House of Assembly, neither is it a subsidiary legislation or an instrument under the provisions of the law.

Therefore, by the authority of Section 36 (12) of the Constitution, and the Supreme Court decision in Aoko V. Fagbemi & Ors. (1961) 1 All NLR 400, the conviction of Funke Akindele and her husband is unconstitutional. As I contended earlier, there is no provision in the Public Health Law of Lagos State or the Infectious Disease Regulations that makes a gathering of more than twenty persons or any gathering for that matter a criminal offence.

Regulation 8(1)(a) of the Infectious Disease (Emergency Prevention) Regulations 2020 cited in the charge sheet against the defendants provides thus:

8(1) “The Governor may – (a) restrict or prohibit the gathering of persons in the Local Area, such as conferences, meetings, festivals, private events, religious services, public visits, and such other events, save where the written approval of the Governor is obtained for such gathering.” The above provision does not codify any offence. It only empowers the governor to restrict or prohibit gathering. The Infectious Disease Regulations 2020 should have expressly and specifically prescribed that gathering is restricted and prohibited in Lagos State before it can be relied upon to convict a violator in line with Section 36 (12) of the Constitution. Since neither the Public Health Law of Lagos State nor the Infectious Disease Regulations have prescribed that gathering is an offence, the purported directive of Governor Sanwo-Olu remains an advisory. The Court of Appeal in the case of Faith Okafar V. Governor of Lagos State & Anor. (2016) LPELR-41066 (CA) made it abundantly clear that the directive or order of a governor is not a law & that violation of same cannot result in criminal liability. Read more

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Dt Akinwunmi Adesina
 Opinion

Opinion: The pandemic is no time for fiscal distancing | By: Akinwumi Adesina

The African Development Bank estimates that Covid-19 could cost Africa a GDP loss between $22.1 billion and $88.3 billion in the worst case scenario

These are very difficult days, as the world faces one of its worst challenges ever: the novel coronavirus pandemic. And it seems almost no nation is spared. As infection rates rise, so does panic across financial markets, as economies drastically slow down and supply chains are severely disrupted.

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. As such, it can no longer be business as usual.

Each day, the situation evolves and requires constant reviews of precautionary measures and strategies. In the midst of all this, we must all worry about the ability of every nation to respond to this crisis. And we must ensure that developing nations are prepared to navigate these uncharted waters fully.

That’s why I support the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ urgent call for special resources for the world’s developing countries.

In the face of this pandemic, we must put lives above resources and health above debt. Why? Because developing economies are the most vulnerable at this time. Our remedies must go beyond simply lending more. We must go the extra mile and provide countries with much-needed and urgent financial relief — and that includes developing countries under sanctions.

According to the independent, global think tank ODI in its report on the impact of economic sanctions, for decades, sanctions have decimated investments in public health care systems in quite a number of countries.

Today, the already stretched systems as noted in the 2019 Global Health Security Index will find it difficult to face up to a clear and present danger that now threatens our collective existence.

Only those that are alive can pay back debts.

Sanctions work against economies but not against the virus. If countries that are under sanctions are unable to respond and provide critical care for their citizens or protect them, then the virus will soon “sanction” the world.

In my Yoruba language, there is a saying. “Be careful when you throw stones in the open market. It may hit a member of your family.”

That’s why I also strongly support the call by the UN Secretary-General that debts of low-income countries be suspended in these fast-moving and uncertain times.

But I call for even bolder actions, and there are several reasons for doing so.

First, the economies of developing countries, despite years of great progress, remain extremely fragile and ill equipped to deal with this pandemic. They are more likely to be buried with the heavy fiscal pressure they now face with the coronavirus.

Second, many of the countries in Africa depend on commodities for export earnings. The collapse of oil prices has thrown African economies into distress. According the AFDB’s 2020 Africa Economic Outlook, they simply are not able to meet budgets as planned under pre-coronavirus oil price benchmarks.

The impact has been immediate in the oil and gas sector, as noted in a recent CNN news analysis.

In the current environment, we can anticipate an acute shortage of buyers who, for understandable reasons, will reallocate resources to addressing the Covid-19 pandemic. African countries that depend on tourism receipts as a key source of revenue are also in a straightjacket.

Third, while rich countries have resources to spare, evidenced by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus, developing countries are hampered with bare-bones resources.

The fact is, if we do not collectively defeat the coronavirus in Africa, we will not defeat it anywhere else in the world. This is an existential challenge that requires all hands to be on deck. Today, more than ever, we must be our brothers and sisters’ keepers.

Around the world, countries at more advanced stages in the outbreak are announcing liquidity relief, debt restructuring, forbearance on loan repayments, relaxation of standard regulations and initiatives.

In the United States, packages of more than $2 trillion have already been announced, in addition to a reduction in Federal Reserve lending rates and liquidity support to keep markets operating. In Europe, the larger economies have announced stimulus measures in excess of 1 trillion Euros. Additionally, even larger packages are expected.

As developed countries put in place programs to compensate workers for lost wages for staying at home for social distancing, another problem has emerged — fiscal distancing.

Think for a moment what this means for Africa.

The African Development Bank estimates that Covid-19 could cost Africa a GDP loss between $22.1 billion, in the base case scenario, and $88.3 billion in the worst case scenario. This is equivalent to a projected GDP growth contraction of between 0.7 and 2.8 percentage points in 2020. It is even likely that Africa might fall into recession this year if the current situation persists.

The Covid-19 shock will further squeeze fiscal space in the continent as deficits are estimated to widen by 3.5 to 4.9 percentage points, increasing Africa’s financing gap by an additional $110 to $154 billion in 2020.

Our estimates indicate that Africa’s total public debt could increase, under the base case scenario, from $1.86 trillion at the end of 2019 to over $2 trillion in 2020, compared to $1.9 trillion projected in a ‘no pandemic’ scenario. According to a March 2020 Bank report, these figures could reach $2.1 trillion in 2020 under the worst case scenario.

This, therefore, is a time for bold actions. We should temporarily defer the debt owed to multilateral development banks and international financial institutions. This can be done by re-profiling loans to create fiscal space for countries to deal with this crisis.

That means that loan principals due to international financial institutions in 2020 could be deferred. I am calling for temporary forbearance, not forgiveness. What’s good for bilateral and commercial debt must be good for multilateral debt.

That way, we will avoid moral hazards, and rating agencies will be less inclined to penalize any institution on the potential risk to their Preferred Creditor Status.  The focus of the world should now be on helping everyone, as a risk to one is a risk to all.

Also Read NCDC distributes supplies from Jack Ma foundation.

There is no coronavirus for developed countries and a coronavirus for developing and debt-stressed countries. We are all in this together.

Multilateral and bilateral financial institutions must work together with commercial creditors in Africa, especially to defer loan payments and give Africa the fiscal space it needs.

We stand ready to support Africa in the short term and for the long haul. We are ready to deploy up to $50 billion over five years in projects to help with adjustment costs that Africa will face as it deals with the knock-on effects of Covid-19, long after the current storm subsides.

But more support will be needed. Let’s lift all sanctions, for now. Even in wartime, ceasefires are called for humanitarian reasons. In such situations, there is a time to pause for relief materials to reach affected populations. The novel coronavirus is a war against all of us. All lives matter.

For this reason, we must avoid fiscal distancing at this time. A stitch in time will save nine.

Social distancing is imperative now. Fiscal distancing is not.

*Akinwumi A. Adesina is President of the African Development Bank Group

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 Opinion

Opinion: When the Devil is not to Blame! – By Tony Ogunlowo

Before we go any further let me state that I’m neither a Devil worshipper, a member of the Church of Satan or intend to glorify him. I’m a Catholic, born and bred, and intend to stay so.

The Devil is the most vilified person ( or entity) in the world and is blamed for everything we do wrong,  ever since the First Sin in the Garden of Eden.

When you steal something – it’s the Devils fault!

When you kill somebody – it’s the Devils fault!

When you do anything wrong – it’s the Devils fault!

Leave the ‘poor’ Devil alone and own up to your mistakes! Its not as if he put a gun to your head and forced you to do it.

During the Temptation of Christ if Jesus had LISTENED to the Devil he would have turned stones into bread, leapt off a high mountain and bowed down before Satan, but he didn’t. it would have been a different story if he did: can you imagine him telling his Father in Heaven that it was the Devils fault that he bowed before him and did all the other things?

Also Read: Opinion: “2019: Time to Disrupt the System” ~ By: Tony Ogunlowo

If the Devil, speaking in your head, tells you to do something you do it without hesitation (-if you’re that bad and stupid!) but if I tell you to slap the person standing  right next to you, you’ll look at me as if I’m a madman and probably slap me! So why listen to him?

The Devil, theoretically speaking, has done nothing wrong in this world – it is MAN who is guilty of committing sins. The Devil may suggest, brainwash or intimate but doesn’t actually do anything. It is those who LISTEN to him who are guilty. Here’s another scenario: if I tell you to go and rob a bank and you get caught who will be sent to prison? You of course and the Judge will probably tell you how stupid you are to listen to me in the first place.

Despite the fact we’ve been given a clear reasoning head and KNOW the difference between right and wrong we’ll still do whatever the Devil tells us to do and when we get caught out – it’s the Devils fault!

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Till the end of Time the Devil and his legion of fallen angels will continue to give us bad advice and tell us to do the wrong things and that will be anything that contravenes The 10 Commandments.

Whether the Devil can manifest himself into a person to commit evil is still subject to debate but don’t get me wrong; a person can be possessed by the Devil in the same way a person can be filled with the Holy Spirit. It depends on the individual and what they’re susceptible to. So if you’re bad you will have devilish intentions and do bad things or you can listen to God and do good things. Neither will force your hand.

So for all the people who blame the Devil for all their mistakes STOP IT! It’s your mistake, your sin, your mess and you should put up your hand and admit to it instead of trying to pass the blame on: the Devil will urge you to do bad things but you have the freewill to choose to ignore him. If Jesus could ignore him so can you!

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