The probability that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just.
– -Abraham Lincoln
Most of us by now believe the beautiful ones have been born, only time would tell if this is true or is just a case of the old ugly ones changing their faces to a more attractive one. Most people know I have always been optimistic, albeit about optimism seems like a joke when you juxtapose it with the situation of the country.
However, we need to face some realities and not deceive ourselves ourselves under the umbrella of optimism. We would be wondering who or what would dare try to betray the tireless General himself, the one Nigerians voted for and trust would provide profound solutions to the nation’s problem.
Many of us even wish he can resume office before May 29, his official resumption date. Nigerians want Buhari to come in and perform some abracadabra and you would wonder if it is change or miracle they voted for. Anyway that is as a result of the damage his predecessors have done to the nation.
Unemployed graduates want Buhari to resume power today and recruit millions the following day, market women want Buhari to come in and read in the dailies that” pump price has now been reduced by 50%”, pensioners want Buhari come in and pay them all their arrears instantly, workers want him to review the minimum wage, corps members want their monthly allowance increased.
As a matter of fact the demands on the ’emergency’ list for Buhari without any form of hyperbole seems endless. Lest I forget, Nigerians want him to fight corruption as well. The atmosphere the General would be facing from May 29th might not be favourable.
Firstly, those that want him to fight corruption might not be ready give up their own part of the act. The citizenry undoubtedly have in one way or the other played their parts in promoting corruption.
At least, we know how we adjust metres at filling stations, or shuffle employment and admission list to favour or candidates. This is just a few of numerous ways we the citizens practise corruption at the low level.
We should be asking ourselves if we are ready to give up all these if Buhari decides to lead the battle against corruption.
Secondly, the General would certainly need money to run the economy; to finance projects, to pay salaries and many more.
This might not be the best time for him to consider the drop in oil price at the international market. This is ostensibly as a result of much supply of oil compared to demand at the international market. In economics when supply exceeds demand there would be drop in price of that particular commodity in question. To further escalate the problem in the international oil market, Iran; one of the major exporters of oil in the world has been under economic sancttions for sometime now and reports say these sanctions might be lifted soon.
This simply implies that the oil they have produced and stored over the years would be going into the international market at an outrageous price of $20 per barrel according to information from Tehran, the nation’s capital. We need no professor of economics to help us deduce that our budget which is usually pegged at oil being sold between $40 and $60 per barrel would be running at a deficit because am quite sure no nation would be so loyal to us that it won’t buy from a seller of $20 per barrel and buy from a $40 per barrel. I doubt it
Agriculture might seem a long term solution in this situation. However, products that are being exported to the international market are perennial crops which means it takes at least three years for it to be harvested for sale after planting. So,if Buhari diversify the economy and he is so energetic to ensure these crops are planted the day resumes office then we should be talking about about 2018 or beyond before we start exporting. At the moment our foreign reserve is not an option,the outgoing administration has squandered it already, they forgot that one should add to foreign reserve and not take from it, you only take from it during war, econimic crisis or any or other disaster.
The worst form of betrayal Buhari might be facing would definitely come from the ruling party that would officially become opposition in few days. At the moment they have accepted defeat with magnanimity, their post election candour has been relatively impressive but we might have to wait till after the transition before we can conclude on how sincere they are, because this change means change of ministers, change of special advisers, replacement of contractors, replacement of ambassadors, replacement of heads of university governing concils and the list goes on. These people would be leaving the realms of powers for the first time and this might not be exteremely easy for them. They would no longer hide under impunity, no more excess security personnel and convoys around them, no more gallivanting around the Arab emirates with public funds. Trust me they would find it difficult to adapt to a lifestyle other than that. Hence, they would do everything possible legal or illegal, moral or immoral within their reach to return to power.
Ergo, Buhari should be ready for all forms of distraction. The opposition party by then would aggrandize any error that comes out of his leadership.
This situation is similar to the tale in Chinua Achebe’s “things fall apart”. Where the birds asked Tortoise to join them for a feast they have been invited to. The cunny Tortoise persuaded them to let him bear the name ” all of you” in order to get all the food alone. He succeeded in doing so and all the birds got angry except for their leader; Parrot who accepted defeat and even agreed to deliver tortoise message to his wife. Tortoise never knew he was been lured to where he would be nailed. Maliciosly,Parrot delivered a wrong message to his wife and tortoise shell got broken. We hope they won’t go to this extent after accepting defeat.